DRUMBEAT KEVIN DRUM ON POLITICS, POLICY, AND CATS
|
MOTHER JONES |
October 30, 2009 |
THIS WEEK IN THE BLOGOSPHERE
One Steaming Hot Thought Experiment
Here's a thought experiment for you. Suppose you had some data and you wanted to know what to make of it. The problem is that the subject of the data happens to be a political hot potato, and you know that everyone you show it to is going to cherry-pick just the pieces that bolster all their favorite preconceived notions.
Well, here's an idea: Show the data to a bunch of different experts but remove all the labels first so they have no idea what they're looking at. Just give them the raw numbers and ask what they think.
That's the delightful idea that AP science writer Seth Borenstein hit on a few days ago. He sent data on global warming to several independent statisticians but didn't tell them what the numbers represented. He just wanted to know if they thought the data showed any kind of flattening or decrease in recent years.
Answer: No. "Statisticians who analyzed the data found a distinct decades-long upward trend in the numbers, but could not find a significant drop in the past 10 years in either data set. The ups and downs during the last decade repeat random variability in data as far back as 1880." In other words, contrary to the chatter from global warming skeptics, the Earth didn't start cooling a decade ago. It only looks that way if you compare current temperatures to 1998, which was an unusually hot year due to a strong El Niño. But if you look at all the data, instead of just cherry-picking one single comparison, the news, unfortunately, remains grim. The current decade is the hottest on record, and the next one will be hotter still.
POLITICS
Think the
ag lobby—with so much to lose from global
warming—might want to help pass a climate bill? Don't be
silly.
[READ
MORE]
ECONOMICS
To make a long story short: Rich people tend to do really stupid things when they have too much money lying around for too long. [READ MORE]
MORE FROM MOJO
The political consulting firm Bonner and Associates claimed its forged anti-Waxman Markey letters to House Dems were an anomaly. Nice try. Speaking of messing with the climate bill, if you liked what Max Baucus did to health care reform, you'll love his plans for cap and trade. Plus: Residents in a small California town ask: You want to pump how much carbon under my backyard? And someday, our kids will ask: Why'd it take you guys so long to start fixing the climate? [READ MORE]
CATS
Friday Cat Blogging: Inkblot and Domino, Cover Cats
Behold Mother Jones' latest cover models, urging you to turn down the thermostat this winter and just curl up under the blankets with your staff humans if you get cold. [READ MORE]
MYSTERY GUEST CAT
Mystery Guest Cat: Amelie
This kitty wants a climate treaty. Don't make her beg. You, too, can put your favorite feline on our cover here. [READ MORE]
MOST POPULAR
- $100,000 for a Palin Speech?
- MoJo's Next Top Cover Models: Our Readers
- Obesity Kills More Than Hunger
- Is Obama Plotting to Shut Down the Internet?
KEVIN'S MOST ACTIVE DISCUSSION
Who will be the next bigfoot pundit to have a change of heart about Afghanistan? [READ MORE]
QUOTE OF THE WEEK: From Jon Kingsdale, director of the Massachusetts health insurance exchange, on reining in health care spending in America: [READ MORE]
CHART OF THE WEEK: Despite Gallup's report of a blip in the number of Americans who identify themselves as conservatives, actually political affiliations haven't changed much since the '70s. [READ MORE]
Follow Kevin Drum on Twitter
Want more groundbreaking, original reporting from Mother Jones? Subscribe to the magazine for just $10/year by clicking here!
Hi. Thanks for signing up for Mother Jones' Drumbeat newsletter. Wait, that was your cat? Smart cat! If you don't want to get Drumbeat, or to make changes to your subscription, click here. And lock up the cat.
WWW.MOTHERJONES.COM
Mother Jones 222 Sutter Street,
Suite 600, San Francisco, CA 94108
